- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.58-36.62 this morning supportive level at 36.40 resistance level at 36.70
- SET Index: 1,301.0 (+0.49%), 4 July 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,537.0 (+0.51%), 3 July 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.69 (-0.64 bps), 4 July 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.36 (-7.00 bps), 3 July 2024
- UK election: Exit poll predicts a significant victory for Labour
- Euro zone household savings highest since 2021, but investments fall
- Japanese household spending unexpectedly declined
- The dollar slightly declines during trading on a holiday
UK election: Exit poll predicts a significant victory for Labour
Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party, is poised to become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom according to the latest exit poll projections. The survey suggests that Labour is set for an unprecedented victory in the parliamentary election, while Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party is anticipated to suffer a historic defeat. The poll indicates that Labour could secure 410 seats in the 650-seat parliament, achieving a majority of 170 and ending the Conservative Party's 14-year rule. In contrast, the Conservative Party is expected to secure only 131 seats, a significant drop from the 346 seats they held before parliament dissolved. This outcome would represent the party's worst electoral performance in history, reflecting public discontent with the cost-of-living crisis, prolonged political instability, and internal disagreements.
Euro zone household savings highest since 2021, but investments fall
According to Eurostat, household savings in the euro zone reached their highest level in approximately three years, while investments continued to decline in the first quarter of 2024. Europeans have consistently saved more than their counterparts in the United States, and this gap has recently widened, possibly due to uncertainties stemming from the war in Ukraine and broader economic conditions. The household saving rate, which measures savings as a percentage of disposable income, increased to 15.3% in the euro area during the first quarter, up from 14.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023. This data still falls short of the peak of 25.1% observed in the second quarter of 2020 during the pandemic. Meanwhile, household investments dropped to 9.5% in the quarter, marking their lowest level since early 2021.
Japanese household spending unexpectedly declined
Household spending unexpectedly declined due to increased prices, which continued to reduce consumers' purchasing power and posed a further risk to the fragile economy. Compared to the previous year, consumer spending fell by 1.8% in May, significantly lower than the median market expectation of a 0.1% increase. When adjusted for seasonal variations, spending decreased by 0.3% compared to an anticipated 0.5% rise on a month-on-month basis.
The dollar slightly declines during trading on a holiday
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.69, -0.64 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.7, -0.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.36, -7.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.61 moving in a range of 36.58 - 36.62 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.40-36.70 today. The Dollar mildly softened amid gains in its major counterparts and with US participants away for the Fourth of July celebrations. The British Pound remained stable on election day amid expectations of a significant win for the Labour Party. The Japanese yen gained strength against the US dollar, though support around the 161.00 level tempered the downside in USD/JPY.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
