- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.135-36.235 this morning supportive level at 36.15 resistance level at 36.40
- SET Index: 1,332.0 (+0.20%), 12 July 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,615.4 (+0.55%), 12 July 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.60 (-1.73 bps), 12 July 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.18 (-2.0 bps), 12 July 2024
- US Producer Prices Rise as Service Margins Increase
- Investors expect an increase in Trump-victory trades following the shooting
- China's trade balance soars in June with rising exports and falling imports
- The Dollar index extended into its third day of declines
US Producer Prices Rise as Service Margins Increase
U.S. producer prices increased slightly more than expected in June amid a rise in the cost of services, but that did not change expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates in September. The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) for month-over-month (M/M) came in at 0.2%, exceeding the anticipated 0.1%, while the previous figure was revised upward from -0.2% to 0.0%. On an annual basis, it was also higher than expected at 2.6%, exceeding the forecast of 2.3%, with the previous number revised upward from 2.2% to 2.4%. Meanwhile, core PPI also delivered stronger-than-expected results, with the month-over-month increase at 0.4% and the year-over-year rise at 3%, exceeding the anticipated 2.5%, with the prior number revised up from 2.3% to 2.6%. Despite the robust overall data, analysts noted that the PPI components affecting the PCE report were weaker.
Investors expect an increase in Trump-victory trades following the shooting
Investors said on Sunday that Saturday’s shooting at former U.S. President Donald Trump’s election rally is likely to boost his chances of returning to the White House, leading to increased bets on his victory in the coming week. Trump was shot in the ear during the Pennsylvania rally, which authorities are investigating as an assassination attempt. Despite his bloodied appearance, Trump pumped his fist shortly after the attack, and his campaign confirmed he was unharmed. Prior to the shooting, markets had already responded to the possibility of a Trump presidency by driving up the dollar and positioning for a steeper U.S. Treasury yield curve. These trends may strengthen in the upcoming week.
China's trade balance soars in June with rising exports and falling imports
China’s trade balance exceeded expectations in June, driven by a surge in exports and an unexpected drop in imports. The surplus grew to $99.05 billion, surpassing the $85 billion forecast and up from $82.62 billion the previous month. Exports increased by 8.6% year-on-year, outperforming the anticipated 8% rise and the previous month’s 7.6% growth, buoyed by resilience in major markets in Europe and Asia. Conversely, imports fell by 2.3% year-on-year, contrary to the expected 2.8% increase and reversing the 1.8% rise in May, contributing to the stronger trade balance.
The Dollar index extended into its third day of declines
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.60, -1.73 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.61, -1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.18, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.17 moving in a range of 36.135 - 36.235 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.15-36.40 today. The Dollar Index extended its decline into a third day, ignoring the strong US PPI data released earlier. Throughout the session, the index continued to drop, approaching the 104 mark and trading near session lows of 104.04. The Euro experienced notable gains against the Dollar in a session with limited data influencing the currency pair. The Yen also performed strongly among G10 currencies, with USD/JPY continuing its decline below the 158 level, reaching lows of 157.39. The Yen's strength this week follows two potential intervention attempts by the Ministry of Finance.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
