- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.97-36.00 this morning supportive level at 35.80 resistance level at 36.10
- SET Index: 1,307.2 (+1.20%), 26 July 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,463.5 (+0.08%), 29 July 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.61 (-0.62 bps), 26 July 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.17 (-3.0 bps), 29 July 2024
- PCE inflation slips to 2.5% in June
- China's industrial profits surged in June despite economic challenges
- Thailand’s exports decline in June due to a slump in agricultural trade
- Dollar trades sideways as markets await central bank and economic news
PCE inflation slips to 2.5% in June
Overall U.S. inflation eased as anticipated in June, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve might begin reducing interest rates in September. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index fell to 2.5% in June from 2.6% the previous month, aligning with predictions. Excluding volatile items such as food and fuel, the year-on-year "core" inflation measure, which is the Fed's preferred gauge, held steady at 2.6%, unchanged from May and slightly above the anticipated 2.5%. On a monthly basis, the headline PCE was
0.1%, while the core PCE increased by 0.2%, both figures meeting expectations.
China's industrial profits surged in June despite economic challenges
China's industrial profits grew at a faster clip in June, even as businesses were grappling with a downshift in consumers' sentiment amid a shaky economic recovery. A 3.6% year-on-year rise in profits last month followed a 0.7% gain in May, while first-half earnings were up 3.5%, accelerating from a 3.4% increase in the January-May period. The robust data contrasted with a slowing economy, which missed forecasts in the second quarter as the consumer sector was downbeat amid job market woes and a protracted housing downturn. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.75 million) from their main operations.
Thailand’s exports decline in June due to a slump in agricultural trade
In June, exports decreased by 0.3% compared to the same month last year, falling short of analysts' forecasts for a 2.6% increase and marking the first drop in three months, mainly due to the end of the fruit product season. However, sectors such as auto parts, computer accessories, and jewelry saw growth. Imports rose slightly by 0.3% in June from a year earlier, missing the 3% growth estimate. Thailand reported a trade surplus of $0.22 billion for June, which was less than the expected $0.60 billion. Despite the drop in June, exports for the first half of 2024 grew by 2% to $145.290 billion, while imports for the same period increased by 3% to $150.532 billion. This resulted in a trade deficit of $5.242 billion for the first six months of the year.
Dollar trades sideways as markets await central bank and economic news
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.61, -0.62 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.62, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.17, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.14 moving in a range of 35.97 – 36.00 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.80 - 36.10 today. The Dollar Index remained steady, trading within a narrow range and showing little reaction to the mixed US PCE data for June. Core month-on-month and year-on-year figures slightly exceeded expectations, while the headline price index met forecasts. The Euro is slightly stronger against the Dollar, with the exchange rate hovering around 1.0860. There was limited news flow during the session. The Japanese yen gradually weakened during the session, allowing USD/JPY to reclaim the 154.00 level. Meanwhile, the BoJ is set to begin its two-day policy meeting. A recent report indicated that some policymakers believe rate increases could positively impact consumption, as yen depreciation is seen as a major factor in weak spending. However, others question the effectiveness of a small rate hike in aiding the yen's recovery.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
