- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.14-36.21 this morning supportive level at 36.10 resistance level at 36.30
- SET Index: 1,327.4 (-0.35%), 15 July 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,631.2 (+0.28%), 15 July 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.63 (+2.52 bps), 15 July 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.23 (+5.0 bps), 15 July 2024
- Fed's Powell highlights inflation progress
- China GDP disappoints at 4.7% in Q2 as weak spending weighs
- China's new home prices decline sharply, highlighting the need for additional support
- The dollar edges slightly lower after Powell
Fed's Powell highlights inflation progress
Fed Chair Powell stated that the economy has performed exceptionally well over the past few years. He anticipates a slowdown in economic activity and continued progress on inflation this year, noting that these trends are already occurring. Powell mentioned that the inflation data for Q2 shows improvement, with three better-than-expected readings, which bolsters confidence in the reduction of inflation. With inflation decreasing, the Fed will now focus on both of its mandates. He indicated that an unexpected deterioration in the labor market would prompt a response but emphasized that no specific signals about future meetings will be given, with decisions being made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Powell also noted that waiting for inflation to reach 2% before making cuts would be too late, and that officials need to be assured that inflation is on a downward trajectory. Recent favorable data has helped build this confidence.
China GDP disappoints at 4.7% in Q2 as weak spending weighs
China’s economy grew less than expected in the second quarter, gross, as weak consumption largely offset a fledgling recovery in manufacturing activity and industrial production. Gross domestic product grew 4.7% year-on-year in the three months to June 30. The reading was softer than expectations for growth of 5.1% and slowed from the 5.3% seen in the first quarter. Quarter-on-quarter GDP rose 0.7% against expectations for a 1.1% increase. The reading indicated that the Chinese economy was cooling as the initial boost from a string of stimulus measures earlier this year wore thin. Soft consumer spending and a battered property market were key drivers of this downturn.
China's new home prices decline sharply, highlighting the need for additional support
In June, China's new home prices fell at the fastest rate in nine years, while property sales and investment also dropped, putting more pressure on policymakers to introduce stimulus measures to support the struggling sector. New home prices decreased by 4.5% year-over-year, the sharpest decline since June 2015, and were down 0.7% from the previous month. The property market's severe downturn since 2021 has caused many developers to default and left construction sites idle, undermining confidence in the sector, which has traditionally been a favored investment for Chinese households.
The dollar edges slightly lower after Powell
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.63, +2.52 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.60, +2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.23, +5.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.23 moving in a range of 36.135 - 36.235 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.15-36.40 today. The dollar was volatile and ended up little changed for the session. Initially, it gained following the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, which raised his re-election prospects. However, the dollar index later retreated to a floor at 104.00 after comments from Fed Chair Powell. The decline was reversed as Powell also indicated that additional data would bolster confidence. The Euro returned to relatively flat territory after trading on both sides of the 1.0900 level against the dollar. The Japanese yen slightly weakened on the day but briefly showed notable strength, with USD/JPY falling below 158.00 before recovering fully shortly after.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
