- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.925-36.01 this morning supportive level at 35.85 resistance level at 36.05
- SET Index: 1,321.3 (-0.46%), 16 July 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,667.2 (+0.64%), 16 July 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.60 (-2.56 bps), 16 July 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.17 (-6.0 bps), 16 July 2024
- U.S. retail sales exceed expectations in June
- ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell more than expected
- Canada's June inflation drop boosts likelihood of a rate cut next week
- The dollar remained largely unchanged overall
U.S. retail sales exceed expectations in June
U.S. retail sales remained steady in June, as a decline in auto dealership receipts was balanced by widespread strength in other areas. This reflects consumer resilience and supports a positive outlook for economic growth in the second quarter. Retail sales exceeded expectations, with the headline figure coming in at 0.0%, better than the -0.3% forecast. The metric excluding autos increased by 0.4%, surpassing the anticipated 0.0% and showing an improvement from the revised 0.1% in May. The measure excluding both gas and autos grew by 0.8%, a jump from the previous 0.3% (which was revised up from 0.1%). The retail control group saw a significant rise of 0.9%, far exceeding the forecast of 0.2%, the prior 0.4%, and even the highest analyst estimates of 0.5%. This robust control figure is expected to positively influence GDP in the second quarter.
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index fell more than expected
German investor confidence declined more than anticipated in July, marking its first drop in a year and indicating a potentially uneven recovery for the euro zone's largest economy. Germany's manufacturing sector continues to face difficulties, with weak industrial orders reported for May. The economic sentiment index decreased to 41.8 points from 47.5 points in June, according to the ZEW economic research institute, falling short of the forecasted 42.3. However, the evaluation of the current economic situation in Germany saw a slight improvement, rising to -68.9 from -73.8 the previous month.
Canada's June inflation drop boosts likelihood of a rate cut next week
Canada's slower-than-expected increase in consumer prices in June has strengthened predictions that the Bank of Canada will implement another rate cut next week, providing additional relief to homeowners and heavily indebted businesses. The annual inflation rate eased slightly more than anticipated to 2.7% in June, with the Bank of Canada's closely monitored core inflation measures also showing a small decline. Analysts had projected a drop in the inflation rate to 2.8% from 2.9% in May.
The dollar remained largely unchanged overall
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.60, -2.56 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.59, -3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.17, -6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.21 moving in a range of 35.925 - 36.01 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.85 - 36.05 today. The Dollar Index finished the session flat despite experiencing upside in response to strong US retail sales, reaching highs of 104.51, yet the index ultimately pared gains later. The Euro was flat despite the ZEW economic sentiment index declining more than was expected. The Japanese yen is giving back recent strength after experiencing significant gains following last week's soft US CPI report, dovish remarks from Powell, and Japanese intervention.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
