Global Economy
- Strong outlook in both manufacturing and service sectors continued and helped global economic recovery. Exports from Asia posted strong growth in 1 st quarter but new round of Covid 19 in many Asian countries might affected future productions and exports.
- Rising inflation across the world due to energy price. Due to low oil price last year, Inflation in April rose significantly in many countries. Rising commodity prices suggest higher production price, which might lead to increasing consumer price in the future. Manufacturing faced supply chai n d isruption due to massive returning demands.
- Overall, economic growth continued as more business reopened U.S. labor market took longer time to recover. China s growth resumed at moderate pace.
Domestic Economy
- Overall, Thai economy in March 21 continuously improved after a second wave of domestic outbreak coming under control. A recurring third wave of domestic infection in late March 21 will hamper Thailand s economic recovery path and could potentially delay an effective plan for reopening border.
- External sectors (except international travelling) continued its recovery trend. Merchandise exports excluded gold steadily recovered following trading partners ’ economic upturn. Foreign tourists were however at very low level, though with a slight improvement in March.
- Domestic activities improved. Private consumption expanded from the same period last year with a positive momentum after the pandemic being under control, together with the support from Government stimulus measures. However, supportive factors were in weak condition. Thai tourism rebounded partly due to domestic tourism campaign. In the meantime, private investment showed positive momentum in machinery and equipment in accordance with improved business sentiment and the rebound of merchandise exports. However, C onstruction sector and Real estate sector were in weak condition. Public investment budgets were disbursed at greater degree from last year. HCPI in April jumped from low base effect and increase in energy and ag ricultural prices
Financial Market
- Surprisingly high US Inflation ( 4.2 % on March) has slowed down the flattening path of UST curve and put the pressure on DXY index to drop to 12 weeks lowest level at 90.20 as US markets expects 80 % chance of a rate increase from Fed by December 2022 . However, we still believe that higher than Fed s target inflation is one time and will gradually decrease through this year.
- In this month, USDTHB has not been impacted by weakening DXY. USDTHB trend is still in ongoing uptrend this year. Slower than expected Thai Economy as a result of 3 rd round of covid 19 and prolonged negative current account are main drivers.
- LT TGB bearish has been slowed down by covid situation. ST TGB will be fluctuated in small range with downside price risk.
